The research, from a London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) report, commissioned by the Alzheimer’s Research Trust, shows that the cost to provide long-term care to older people with dementia will increase to £16.7 billion by 2031, as opposed to £10.9 billion as estimated in 2003.
The scientists believe the number of people with dementia and other causes of cognitive impairment (CI) will rise by 83% by the year 2031 (from 468,000 to 855,000). The impact on society and the economy is much greater than originally estimated:
• The cost of long-term care for older people with CI is projected to rise from £5.4 billion in 2002 to £16.7 billion in 2031 (at constant 2002 prices) – amounting to a rise from 0.60% to 0.96% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
• The number of hours of home care arranged by local authorities for older people with CI would need to rise by 91%
• The number of people with CI in care homes would rise by 88%, from an estimate of 205,000 in 2002 to 385,000 in 2031
LSE researchers compared figures for 2002 with projected figures for the year 2031, under a range of assumptions about future mortality and prevalence rates, and future patterns of care.
Professor Martin Knapp, lead researcher at the London School of Economics, said “The research shows that if treatments developed were to reduce the percentage of older people with severe cognitive impairment by only 1% per year, this would nearly offset the increasing long-term care costs.”
“A dramatically rising ageing population over the next 25 years will have major implications – not only in terms of diseases like Alzheimer’s – but also in terms of the wider impact on society.”
Rebecca Wood, Chief Executive for the Alzheimer’s Research Trust, said “Unless we develop more effective treatments for dementia, there will be a hefty rise in demand for care services with major consequences for all of us.
“The Government needs to make Alzheimer’s research funding a priority. Only £11 is spent on UK research into Alzheimer’s for every person affected by the disease, compared to £289 for cancer patients.”