Scientists said they have developed a computer program that can predict whether women have a high risk of developing breast or ovarian cancer. By using detailed family history, the program called BOADICEA selects women who are most susceptible to the illness and would benefit from further screening or treatment.
“BOADICEA works out a woman’s breast and ovarian cancer risk using detailed information on her family history of cancer,” said Professor Doug Easton, of the Cancer Research UK Genetic Epidemiology Unit in Cambridge, England.
“The program calculates both her risk of carrying a particular cancer-causing mutation and her overall risk of developing breast or ovarian cancer,” he added.
Identifying women with a high risk of either illness will enable doctor to monitor them more closely or take preventive measures such as surgery or drug treatments.
Scientists have identified two mutations in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes that increase cancer risk but many other genes are also involved.
“BRCA1 and BRCA2 together account for fewer than 20 percent of breast cancer clusters in families, so for a computer program of this nature to be accurate it is vital it can take other mutations into account,” said Easton, who described the program in the British Journal of Cancer.
Women with the BRCA1 mutation have a 60-85 percent chance of developing breast cancer at some stage in their lives, as well as a 20-40 percent risk of ovarian cancer.
A fault in the BRCA 2 gene conveys a 40-60 percent risk of breast cancer and 10-20 percent chance of ovarian cancer.
The computer program is based on genetic information from 1,484 women with breast cancer and 156 families with breast and ovarian cancer cases.
Easton tested the program by comparing its findings with genetic tests done on women it had predicted as high risk.
“Having put the finished product through its paces by rigorously testing it, we have confirmed that it is more accurate than any other such program in the past,” according to Easton.
After the program has been made more user-friendly, the researchers plan to make it available on the Internet to oncologists and geneticists.
The scientists also intend later to input non-genetic factors such as age at menopause, breast-feeding history and the number of children a woman has, which may have an impact on their cancer risk.
“It holds the promise to be the most accurate computer-based program available to identify women at high risk of breast and ovarian cancer on account of gene mutations in their families,” said Professor Robert Souhami of the Cancer Research UK charity.